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“NOW this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end ofthe beginning.” Churchill's genius for spin, after El Alamein had delivered the first big Britishvictory of the second world war, is illustrated by how little-remembered are the modest claimshe went on to make for that triumph. “Henceforth,” he continued, “Hitler's Nazis will meetequally well-armed, and perhaps better-armed, troops.” That was a weaselly fudge if everBagehot heard one.

“現(xiàn)在還沒到結局的時候，甚至這不是結局的起點，但是這是開始的終點。”當阿拉曼傳來英國在二戰(zhàn)中首次大捷的消息后，丘吉爾在其用來稱贊此次勝利的公告中有這么幾句不引人注意卻又最貼切的話，這使得丘吉爾口吐蓮花的天賦顯露無遺。他繼續(xù)說道“今后，希特勒的納粹軍隊會遭遇裝備同樣精良，甚至是更好的軍隊。” 如果白芝浩聽到過含糊的外交辭令，也還會認為這是相當狡猾的一句。

George Osborne faced a similarly daunting exercise in expectations management whendelivering his fifth budget on March 19th. Wan with nerves, the chancellor of the exchequerwas able to announce to Parliament the best economic figures in five years of faltering growth,falling living standards and painful spending cuts. The economy is growing faster than in anyother large rich country. It is creating record numbers of jobs: for the first time in threedecades Britain's employment rate is higher than America's. The budget deficit is edgingdownwards. The difficulty for the chancellor was that, having been for so long denied, peoplewant jam, which he was bound to refuse them. The deficit, at around ￡108 billion ($179 billion)this year, or 6.6% of GDP, is too large to support the tax cuts that many of his Conservativecolleagues are demanding. But, while bound to disappoint, Mr Osborne needed to avoidseeming so cautious as to crush confidence in the recovery and his own stewardship of it.His task was to celebrate and reassure, yet give away almost nothing.

3月19日，奧斯本提交其第五個財政預算報告，并回應大眾的期待。這與(丘吉爾)如臨深淵的情形十分相似。這位財政大臣面色蒼白，緊張兮兮地向國會宣讀了經(jīng)濟疲軟、生活標準下降和財政緊縮的五年以來令人振奮的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)。英國的經(jīng)濟增長比其他的大經(jīng)濟體都要快。新增就業(yè)數(shù)量破了紀錄：三十年來英國就業(yè)率頭一次超越美國。而財政赤字也正快速下降。不可否認，人民是想要甜頭的。奧斯本的困難在于他決心拒絕這種訴求。今年的赤字約有1080億英鎊(1790億美元)，占GDP6.6%。 如果按照一些奧斯本的保守黨同僚的盤算的那樣削減稅收，這赤字就規(guī)模太大而無法給予支持。但他必須避免因為態(tài)度謹慎而打擊了(人們)對經(jīng)濟復蘇的信心，以及他對黨的領導。他的任務本來就是歡呼慶祝，鞏固經(jīng)濟勢頭，而不能給(民眾)添福利。

He managed that, first by reminding Britons of the state they were in when the Tory-ledcoalition took over in 2010. The economy had suffered the deepest recession of modern timesand seen the world's biggest bank bail-out. The government was borrowing a quarter of whatit spent. That history lesson done with, Mr Osborne began to relax, and a dab of colourreturned to his pallid cheeks. Britain was recovering from these horrors, he said, because of itsadherence to “the plan”.

他做到了。首先，在托尼領導的黨派聯(lián)盟2010年贏得大選時，他就提醒英國民眾英國當時的狀況。此次經(jīng)濟衰退為進入現(xiàn)代歷史以來最為嚴重的一次。本國銀行紓困的規(guī)模也舉世罕見。政府四分之一的開支由借貸而來。好在這段歷史翻過去了。奧斯本可以放松，一抹血色也出現(xiàn)在他蒼白的臉頰上。他說，英國在這些可怕的情況中走出來了，這要歸功于貫徹下來的(經(jīng)濟) “計劃”。

He referred to a raft of spending cuts, tax increases and pro-business gestures designed witha view to restoring the public finances to surplus by 2018. That target is, in fact, less fixedthan Mr Osborne implies. It was pushed back several times while the economy languished: thedeficit was originally to have been closed before next year's general election. The plan is, inshort, little more than an expression of the chancellor's own shifting economic judgment.

他指的計劃是減少開支，增加稅收和刺激商業(yè)等一攬子措施，以期2018年時公共財政能增長且有盈余。這個目標其實并不像奧斯本說的那么堅決。經(jīng)濟不景氣時，計劃推遲了好幾次：本來明年大選之前赤字應該消除了的。簡而言之，這個計劃不過是奧斯本自己對不斷變化的經(jīng)濟結論的一個表達。

No matter. The recovery, and his political rivals' failure to predict it, has enshrined the plan assacred and inflexible. This is a mark of the political capital Mr Osborne is now drawing on, evenas he admitted the economy's many remaining weaknesses. His Labour Party rival, the shadowchancellor Ed Balls, who chuntered grudgingly throughout the budget speech, appears tohave been outdone. So have Mr Osborne's many erstwhile Tory critics. The apparentlydaunting task of arguing that the economy is stronger yet still too weak for giveaways turnedout to be a cinch. The chancellor was triumphant.

不過這沒什么關系。經(jīng)濟復蘇了，他的政治對手又沒有預料到這一點，使得這個計劃變得神圣不可動搖。這也是奧斯本所倚重的標志性政治資本，即便他承認經(jīng)濟還有還多缺點。他的工黨對手，影子財政大臣艾德.鮑斯在整個演講期間都心有不甘的喃喃自語，看上去已經(jīng)被淘汰了。托尼.布萊爾執(zhí)政時期很多批評奧斯本的人也是這樣。至于那個顯然燙手山芋似的任務，即申明經(jīng)濟雖然好轉但依然無力分派福利，現(xiàn)在也把握十足。奧斯本現(xiàn)在得意萬分。

That patently owes as much to crafty politics as to economics, and Mr Osborne showed plentymore in his speech. It was less weaselly than stoat-like—a whirligig of policies and pledges thatappeared more fascinating than substantial. They included several previously flagged trapsfor Labour. Legislation to cap the welfare bill—a popular idea, tricky for Labour, and of onlytoken importance to the cost of welfare—is to be introduced to Parliament next week.Announcing some money for next year's 800th anniversary of the Magna Carta, the chancelloreven found the opportunity to invite comparison between the medieval monarch ithumbled, King John, and another brother-betrayer, Labour's leader Ed Miliband. It was one ofthe better budget gags.

這個勝利除了經(jīng)濟原因，也要歸功于其靈活的政治手腕。而奧斯本在他的演講中披露了其他的原因。這并非是白鼬一般的狡猾，而僅僅是讓政策與承諾看上去吸引人，而非簡單的有料。其中包括了工黨之前樹立的幾項旗幟性的(政策)口號。通過立法給福利開支設定上限是一項廣受歡迎的政策，是工黨(收買人心)的把戲，其面子功夫上的重要性掩蓋了福利成本。而這個政策下周就會提交到議會。在宣告明年舉行大憲章800周年慶典的預算之際，奧斯本甚至找了個機會比較起中世紀享有盛譽的君主約翰與一個脫黨的同志——工黨魁首文立彬。這是結束預算討論的好招之一。

The chancellor's more substantial offers appeared similarly designed to outfox his rivals. Byraising the income tax threshold to ￡10,500, Mr Osborne will hope to woo aspirational lowearners, a group that currently votes, if at all, for anyone except the Tories. By giving retireesmore say over their pension pots, a more ambitious ploy, he must hope to stanch theseepage of silver-haired Tory voters to the UK Independence Party, which has no economicpolicy to speak of. To give the chancellor his due, pulling out a surprise liberal reform of thiskind seemed also a sensible way to negate the unrealistic demands for a splurge.

奧斯本手里更多的實打實計劃同樣是用來智勝競爭對手的。通過將收入稅門檻升至10,500英鎊，奧斯本希望能吸引有迫切渴求的低收入者。如果他們去投票的話，這些人會支持任何一個候選人，除了保守黨人。通過給這些退休人員更多的養(yǎng)老金這樣一個更有野心的策略，奧斯本肯定希望阻止白發(fā)蒼蒼的保守黨選民流失到英國獨立黨那里。后者沒有什么經(jīng)濟政策可言。為了對奧斯本公平起見，這種類似自由派的改革看上去也是較合適的方法來打消(民眾)不切實際的揮霍要求。

The method in his trickery

施詭計的方法

And there is an important truth in that. Though Mr Osborne's trickery is always evident, so,increasingly, is the seriousness of his purpose. For all his feints, traps and compromises, thechancellor has so far stripped the public sector of 600,000 jobs, capped welfare and overseen,in a downturn, historic growth in private-sector employment. He has cut business taxes,thereby persuading employers to accept a rise in the minimum wage.

奧斯本的詭計中有個重要的事實。盡管奧斯本很明顯用了詭計，但是，更得提的是他嚴肅的目的。除了佯攻，圈套和承諾，到目前為止，他已經(jīng)在公共部門削減了60萬個職位，封頂了福利項目，并在這個經(jīng)濟衰退時期監(jiān)督著私營部門的歷史性增長。他還降低了營業(yè)稅，因此促使雇主提高了最低工資。

It is reasonable to argue about whether Mr Osborne's measures have been just. Next year'selection campaign will accordingly pit the Tory claim to have managed the economy wellagainst Labour's aspiration to manage it more fairly. But no one should doubt the clarity ofthe vision that is driving the Conservative chancellor. Whereas David Cameron, the primeminister, promised to change Britain, with a fuzzy idea of volunteerism, Mr Osborne is actuallychanging it.

奧斯本的措施是否恰當?對其爭論自然是合理的。照目前的情形，明年的競選運動肯定會刻上保守黨的如下口號：保守黨人把經(jīng)濟管理的更有效率，而工黨只想著讓經(jīng)濟更公平。但是不會有人懷疑這位保守黨大臣所秉持的明確愿景。當首相大衛(wèi).卡梅倫改革英國的構想還停留在模糊的志愿精神時，奧斯本事實上已經(jīng)去做了。

His ambition is to make a more industrious society, less blighted by the entitlement culturethat blossomed under Labour. Even after the deficit is no more, the chancellor believes, publicspending should be held down. Again, his motives appear partly self-interested. Mr Osborneharbours leadership ambitions, and his ideas are finding more favour with the right of his partythan Mr Cameron enjoys. The beneficiaries of his remodelled society might also be likelier tovote Tory. But just because the chancellor's vision is political does not necessarily make itwrong.

奧斯本有志于打造一個更加勤勉的社會，而不會被工黨政府下培養(yǎng)起來的權利文化而影響得萎靡不振。當然，他的部分動機是自利。奧斯本控制了他的領導欲望。就保守黨的一貫宗旨來說，奧斯本的觀點得到越來越多的擁護，比卡梅倫得到的更多。在他重塑社會過程中得益的人也許更有可能給保守黨投票。因此沒有必要因為奧斯本的愿景政治意味濃厚就認定此計劃是錯誤的。