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You often hear economists and investors talk thesedays about the ‘broken growth model’ in emergingmarkets. It isn’t a terribly precise term but it’s easy to see what people mean. The problem inEM is that none of the three possible sources of GDP growth – exports, or public domesticspending, or private domestic spending – have much going for them.

如今你經(jīng)常聽(tīng)到經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和投資者談?wù)撔屡d市場(chǎng)“增長(zhǎng)模式破產(chǎn)”。這不是一個(gè)特別準(zhǔn)確的術(shù)語(yǔ)，但我們不難看出人們所指的意思。新興市場(chǎng)的問(wèn)題在于，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的三個(gè)可能增長(zhǎng)源頭——出口、公共國(guó)內(nèi)支出和私人國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)——沒(méi)有一個(gè)是強(qiáng)勁的。

Exports from EM are hobbled by a collapse in the growth of global trade and the related fall inworld commodity prices. Public spending growth is weak because many governments are toonervous to loosen fiscal policy, fearing a loss of sovereign creditworthiness at a time when theoutlook for capital inflows isn’t encouraging. And private domestic spending is hampered bythe fact that credit markets in many countries are in ‘post-boom’ mode: neither domesticlenders nor borrowers have much in the way of risk appetite.

全球貿(mào)易增速劇減以及相關(guān)的世界大宗商品價(jià)格下跌，重創(chuàng)了新興市場(chǎng)的出口。公共支出增長(zhǎng)很弱，原因在于許多政府過(guò)于緊張、不敢放松財(cái)政政策，擔(dān)心在資本流入前景不妙之際喪失主權(quán)信譽(yù)。私人國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)受到了許多國(guó)家的信貸市場(chǎng)處于‘后繁榮’狀態(tài)的抑制：國(guó)內(nèi)的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)和借款者兩方面都沒(méi)有多少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好。

All this helps to explain why emerging markets GDP growth, on average, should fall below 4per cent this year for the first time since 2001.

這一切有助于解釋，為何今年的新興市場(chǎng)平均GDP增速應(yīng)該會(huì)自2001年以來(lái)首次降到4%以下。

Faced with this state of affairs, you might think countries would be falling over themselves toreform their economies: reducing barriers to economic activity, de-clogging product markets,reducing regulation, making additional effort to seek new inflows of foreign direct investment.Yet most economists and investors with any knowledge of emerging markets would only beable to name two countries which have a definable reform strategy that is being more or lessimplemented: India and Mexico.

面對(duì)這種局面，你或許會(huì)以為，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家將競(jìng)相推行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革：降低經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)門檻，疏通產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)，減少監(jiān)管，加倍努力尋求新的外國(guó)直接投資(FDI)。不過(guò)，大多數(shù)了解新興市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和投資者只能列出兩個(gè)國(guó)家具有比較明確的改革戰(zhàn)略、而且或多或少在執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)略：印度和墨西哥。

Why are so few countries embracing reform? To see why, you need to think back to the early2000s, when emerging economies were just, well, emerging from two decades ofintermittent financial crises. Looking back on the grim experiences of the 1980s and 1990s –crises in Latin America, Asia, Russia, Turkey and others – the biggest question at the start ofthe 2000s was ‘what on earth is it that’s making developing countries so susceptible to crisis?’And the answer seemed clear. The problem in emerging markets was overwhelminglydescribed as a problem to do with weak sovereign balance sheets: too much public debt, toomuch of it denominated in foreign currencies, and too much of it needing to be repaid too soon.

為何擁抱改革的國(guó)家如此之少?若要知道原因，你需要回想一下本世紀(jì)初的情況，那時(shí)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體剛剛走出持續(xù)20年斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的金融危機(jī)�；貞浺幌律鲜兰o(jì)80和90年代的可怕經(jīng)歷吧——拉美、亞洲、俄羅斯和土耳其等地的危機(jī)——本世紀(jì)初的最大問(wèn)題是，“究竟是什么因素導(dǎo)致發(fā)展中國(guó)家這么容易爆發(fā)危機(jī)?”答案似乎顯而易見(jiàn)。新興市場(chǎng)的問(wèn)題被多數(shù)人描述為與主權(quán)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表薄弱有關(guān)：公共債務(wù)太高，其中以外幣計(jì)價(jià)的債務(wù)比例太高，需要很快償付的比例也太高。

Structural reform was certainly part of the debate, but not too central to it.

那時(shí)，結(jié)構(gòu)改革當(dāng)然是辯論的議題之一，但并非核心議題。

This analysis spurred action: policymakers in developing countries made strenuous efforts tostrengthen their public sector balance sheets during the 2000s: reducing debt/GDP ratios,cutting the amount owed in dollars, accumulating foreign reserves and extending the maturityprofile of government bonds. Indeed, the 2000s saw a dramatic improvement in the health ofsovereign balance sheets: the average debt/GDP ratio in EM fell from over 60 per cent in theearly 2000s to just over 40 per cent nowadays.

有關(guān)主權(quán)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表薄弱的分析結(jié)果引發(fā)了行動(dòng)：在本世紀(jì)頭10年，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的政策制定者在強(qiáng)化公共部門的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表方面下了很大功夫：降低債務(wù)/GDP比率，減少美元債務(wù)數(shù)量，積累外匯儲(chǔ)備，從總體上延長(zhǎng)政府債券的年期。的確，在本世紀(jì)頭10年里，主權(quán)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的健康狀況大為好轉(zhuǎn)：新興市場(chǎng)的平均債務(wù)/GDP比率從21世紀(jì)初的60%以上，降低到如今的略高于40%。

That felt like enough, since the 2000s wrapped these countries in the warm embrace of rapidChinese growth, plenty of external financing, and unusually strong import growth in thedeveloped world. So, structural reform was crowded out by an intellectual emphasis on thecentral importance of balance sheets, aided by an exceptionally friendly world economy thatmade EM policymakers feel that whatever it was they were doing, it was working.

這給人的感覺(jué)是足夠了，因?yàn)樵诒臼兰o(jì)頭10年里，這些國(guó)家極大地受益于中國(guó)快速增長(zhǎng)、充足外部資金和異常強(qiáng)勁的發(fā)達(dá)世界進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)。結(jié)構(gòu)性改革被排擠掉了，因?yàn)閷W(xué)術(shù)界強(qiáng)調(diào)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的核心重要性，而極其有利的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)促使新興市場(chǎng)的政策制定者覺(jué)得，無(wú)論他們?cè)谧鍪裁矗�他們的行�?dòng)都很靈驗(yàn)。

Now that the global economic temperature is much colder, what we’re learning is that having astrong sovereign balance sheet is at best a necessary – but not a sufficient – condition forenjoying stable growth. A business climate that supports animal spirits is needed too, more sotoday than any time in the recent past.

現(xiàn)在既然全球經(jīng)濟(jì)溫度低了很多，我們學(xué)到的教益是，擁有強(qiáng)大的主權(quán)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表充其量是享有穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)的必要條件，而不是充分條件。還需要一種支持“動(dòng)物精神”的商業(yè)氛圍，與近年任何時(shí)候相比，如今更是如此。

But it takes time for countries to reach that conclusion. Look at Mexico, for example. Onereason that Mexicans ended up electing a President in 2012 who was committed to properstructural reform – in energy, telecoms, education and labour above all – was that its economicperformance had been dismal for over 30 years.

但各國(guó)需要一定的時(shí)間才能得出這個(gè)結(jié)論。以墨西哥為例。2012年，墨西哥人選出了一位承諾認(rèn)真推行結(jié)構(gòu)性改革(最重要的是能源、電信、教育以及勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)改革)的總統(tǒng)，原因之一在于，該國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)令人沮喪已有30余年了。

The 1980s were ‘lost’ as a result of a debt crisis; the 1990s were overshadowed by China’s1993 devaluation and the subsequent Tequila crisis in late 1994; and in the 2000s Mexico wasone of the few countries in the developing world that failed to benefit from China’s rise, sinceChina’s membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 allowed its exporters tocapture market share from, above all, Mexico. Between 1980 and 2010, emerging economiesas a whole enjoyed GDP growth of 4.5 per cent on average. Mexico rubbed along with just 2.6per cent. And it was this persistently weak economic performance which gave the countryplenty of time to come up with a diagnosis, and elect a President aiming to do something aboutit (not that his effort has been an unqualified success).

一場(chǎng)債務(wù)危機(jī)使墨西哥“失去了”上世紀(jì)80年代;90年代，墨西哥受到1993年中國(guó)人民幣貶值和1994年末特基拉危機(jī)的影響;本世紀(jì)頭10年，墨西哥是未能受益于中國(guó)崛起的少數(shù)發(fā)展中國(guó)家之一，因?yàn)?001年中國(guó)加入世貿(mào)組織(WTO)使得中國(guó)出口商從其他國(guó)家那里奪取了市場(chǎng)份額，首當(dāng)其沖的便是墨西哥。1980年至2010年間，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體整體的平均GDP增速達(dá)到4.5%。墨西哥則只有2.6%。正是這種持續(xù)疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)，讓墨西哥舉國(guó)上下有很多時(shí)間得出診斷結(jié)果，最終選舉出一位有意采取相應(yīng)行動(dòng)的總統(tǒng)(當(dāng)然他的努力也并未取得絕對(duì)成功)。

Let’s hope that it doesn’t take too many countries a generation to discover the need forstructural reforms, or the ‘growth model’ may stay broken for a depressingly long time.

我們希望，不要有太多的國(guó)家需要一代人的時(shí)間才能發(fā)現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的必要性，否則的話，當(dāng)前“增長(zhǎng)模式”或許會(huì)失靈很久。

But here’s a dilemma. One of the gravest structural deficiencies in EM is poor infrastructure.Yet improving this will almost certainly require funding from the public sector. So countries mayfind themselves with a difficult choice: is it better to maintain as strong a public balance sheet aspossible in order to keep your country’s borrowing costs low? Or is it worth tolerating higherpublic debt levels in order to finance infrastructure? The outlook for EM growth would be a lotmore rosy if there was an easy answer to that question.

但這里有個(gè)兩難。新興市場(chǎng)的最嚴(yán)重結(jié)構(gòu)性缺陷之一是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施薄弱。但是，改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施將幾乎肯定需要公共部門資金。所以，這些國(guó)家或許會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己面臨一個(gè)棘手選擇：維持盡可能強(qiáng)大的公共部門資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、以便把國(guó)家的借款成本保持在低水平?還是忍受更高的公共債務(wù)水平、以便為完善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提供資金支持?如果這個(gè)問(wèn)題有輕松的答案，新興市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)的前景就將美好得多。