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The outbreak of the first world war was, we are told,greeted with confidence and jubilation by thepeoples of Europe. Something similar seems to behappening after years of economic crisis and politicalturmoil in Greece. A growing number of people feelthat enough is now enough. The strident viewsexpressed in these pages by the Italian economist,Francesco Giavazzi, **are shared by many in highoffice. Meanwhile, Alexis Tsipras, the Greek primeminister, accuses Greece’s creditors of “pillaging” hiscountry.

據(jù)說，一戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)時，歐洲各國民眾自信而喜悅地歡呼這個消息。在經(jīng)過多年的希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和政治動蕩之后，現(xiàn)在似乎在發(fā)生類似的事情。越來越多的人覺得，情況已忍無可忍。意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家弗朗西斯科•賈瓦齊(Francesco Giavazzi)在本報表達(dá)的尖銳觀點(diǎn)，在高層引發(fā)了很多同感。與此同時，希臘總理亞歷克西斯•齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)指責(zé)希臘債權(quán)人“掠奪”他的國家。

Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund’s sober chief economist, indicates that a dealmight still be reached. But many are beginning to long to see the knot cut. Whatever game theGreeks thought they were playing, their government may now just desire an end to thehumiliation. Similarly, whatever game the eurogroup may have been playing, it may now justwant an end to the frustration. If so, Greek default, exit and devaluation could be fairly close.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)一向頭腦清醒的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家奧利維爾•布蘭查德(Olivier Blanchard)暗示，仍有可能達(dá)成協(xié)議。但許多人開始渴望看到割斷這段“孽緣”。無論希臘人之前認(rèn)為他們在玩什么游戲，希臘政府也許現(xiàn)在只想結(jié)束這種羞辱。同樣，無論歐元集團(tuán)此前在玩何種游戲，它也許現(xiàn)在只想結(jié)束這種挫敗感。若果真如此，希臘違約、退出歐元區(qū)和貨幣貶值可能就為時不遠(yuǎn)了。

Would euphoria then last? I fear not. The assumption of some in the eurozone is not onlythat the Greek case is unique, but that the disaster those sinners so deserve would improvethe behaviour of everybody else. But the currency union would also no longer be irrevocable.New crises will occur. When they do, confidence in the union would be less than complete aftera Greek exit. The programme of Outright Monetary Transactions, announced by the EuropeanCentral Bank in 2012, might need to be implemented, to calm nerves. But it could fail. Self-fulfilling speculation could force even more divorces.

那么各方的爽快感將會持續(xù)嗎?恐怕不會。歐元區(qū)的一些人不僅假設(shè)希臘的情況是獨(dú)特的，而且還假設(shè)，讓那些罪人嘗一嘗他們應(yīng)得的苦難，將會改進(jìn)其他人的行為。但歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟也將不再是不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的。新的危機(jī)將會爆發(fā)。希臘退出后，危機(jī)爆發(fā)時人們對貨幣聯(lián)盟的信心將打折扣。歐洲央行(ECB)可能需要實(shí)施其2012年宣布的“直接貨幣交易”(Outright Monetary Transactions, OMT)計(jì)劃以安撫緊張情緒。自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的猜測可能迫使更多國家退出歐元區(qū)。

Some argue that Greece at least would be far better off after a default and exit. It is indeedtheoretically possible that a default to its public creditors, combined with introduction of a newcurrency, a big devaluation (accompanied by sound monetary and fiscal policies),maintenance of an open economy, structural reforms and institutional improvements wouldmark a turn for the better. Far more likely is a period of chaos and, at worst, emergence of afailed state. A Greece that could manage exit well would have also avoided today’s plight.

一些人辯稱，在違約和退出歐元區(qū)之后，至少希臘本身的日子會好過得多。的確，從理論上說，對公共債權(quán)人違約，再加上發(fā)行新貨幣，貨幣大幅貶值(伴隨穩(wěn)健的貨幣和財(cái)政政策)、保持經(jīng)濟(jì)開放、結(jié)構(gòu)性改革和制度改進(jìn)，將有可能帶來局面好轉(zhuǎn)，但更有可能出現(xiàn)的情形是一段時期的混亂，最糟糕的情況是希臘淪為一個失敗國家。如果希臘能夠管理好退歐，那么它根本就不至于陷入今日的困境。

Neither side should underestimate the risks. It is also crucial to avoid the contempt socharacteristic of the frayed nerves caused by failing negotiations.

雙方都不應(yīng)低估風(fēng)險。同樣關(guān)鍵的是，要避免談判失敗往往導(dǎo)致的蔑視情緒。

Fecklessness may be a grievous fault, but grievously have the Greeks answered it. As the Irisheconomist, Karl Whelan, points out in a blistering response to Mr Giavazzi, the Greek economyhas suffered a staggering collapse. From peak to trough, aggregate real gross domesticproduct fell by 27 per cent, while real spending in the economy fell by a third. The cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance improved by 20 per cent of GDP between 2009 and 2014 and thecurrent account balance improved by 16 per cent of GDP between 2008 and 2014.?? Theunemployment rate reached 28 per cent in 2013, while government employment fell by 30 percent between 2009 and 2014. Such a brutal adjustment would have shredded the politics ofany country. (See charts.)

無能也許是一個嚴(yán)重的過錯，但希臘人已經(jīng)做出了慘烈的應(yīng)對。愛爾蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾•惠蘭(Karl Whelan)在犀利回應(yīng)賈瓦齊的觀點(diǎn)時指出，希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受了令人愕然的崩盤。從峰值到谷底，總體實(shí)際GDP下降27%，而經(jīng)濟(jì)中的實(shí)際支出下降三分之一。從2009年到2014年，經(jīng)周期調(diào)整的財(cái)政平衡改善幅度相當(dāng)于GDP的20%，從2008年到2014年，經(jīng)常賬戶平衡改善幅度相當(dāng)于GDP的16%。失業(yè)率在2013年達(dá)到28%，而從2009年到2014年政府雇員人數(shù)下降30%。如此無情的調(diào)整會撕裂任何一個國家的政治。(見圖表)

Europeans are now dealing with Syriza because of this calamity. But they are also dealingwith Syriza because of the refusal to write down more of the debt in 2010. This was a hugeerror, made far worse by the subsequent collapse of the Greek economy. Indeed, the vastbulk of the official loans to Greece were not made for its benefit at all, but for that of itsfeckless private creditors. Creditors, too, have a duty to take care. If they are careless, theyrisk big losses. If governments want to save them, their own taxpayers should be told to payup.

歐洲現(xiàn)在與齊普拉斯打交道，原因之一就是這場災(zāi)難。但另一個原因是，債權(quán)人在2010年拒絕減記更多債務(wù)。那是一個巨大的錯誤，希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)隨后的崩塌讓這個錯誤更為糟糕。實(shí)際上，很大一部分發(fā)放給希臘的官方貸款根本不是為了希臘的利益，而是為了讓無能的私營部門債權(quán)人全身而退。債權(quán)人也有注意義務(wù)。如果他們不小心，就可能面臨巨額虧損。如果政府想挽救他們，這些國家的納稅人應(yīng)當(dāng)被告知要買單。

Greece has also already made significant reforms, including to its pension arrangements andbusiness environment. But backtracking on such reforms would indeed be a huge mistake, asthe eurogroup and IMF argue.

希臘也已實(shí)施了重大改革，包括對養(yǎng)老金安排和商業(yè)環(huán)境的改革。但就像歐元集團(tuán)和IMF所主張的那樣，逆轉(zhuǎn)此類改革將是一個巨大錯誤。

Given all this, it is tragic that the breakdown might occur now, after so much pain has alreadybeen suffered. It is not too late to reach agreements aimed at promoting reform, minimisingadditional austerity and making debt manageable. That would also be in everybody’s long-term interest. The parameters of such a deal are also clear: a small primary surplus in theshort run, a decision by the eurozone to pay off the IMF and the ECB, accompanied by long-term debt relief, and a strong commitment to bold structural reforms by the Greekgovernment.

考慮到這一切，希臘在已經(jīng)經(jīng)受了這么多痛苦之后，現(xiàn)在退出歐元區(qū)是可悲的。現(xiàn)在達(dá)成協(xié)議(旨在推動改革，最小化額外緊縮措施，以及讓債務(wù)變得可控)還不算太晚。這也符合各方的長遠(yuǎn)利益。這種協(xié)議的大框架也相當(dāng)明晰：短期內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)小額基本預(yù)算盈余、歐元區(qū)決定償還IMF和歐洲央行的貸款(伴隨長期債務(wù)減免)，以及希臘政府堅(jiān)定承諾推行大膽結(jié)構(gòu)性改革。

Whether it likes it or not (understandably, it does not) the European Central Bank is a centralplayer. It will have to decide when it can no longer treat the credit of the Greek government ascollateral against emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks. If Greece cannot reach adeal on the release of funds, the ECB seems likely to cut the banks off. That would thentrigger controls on withdrawals. This might be accompanied by a scheme for circulation ofdeposit receipts, or ultimately by messy introduction of a new currency.

不管喜歡與否(可以理解的是，它不喜歡)，歐洲央行都扮演著中心角色。它將必須決定，何時不再將希臘政府的債券視為向該國銀行提供緊急流動性援助的抵押品。如果希臘無法就紓困資金的發(fā)放達(dá)成協(xié)議，歐洲央行似乎可能會切斷希臘銀行的資金。這進(jìn)而會觸發(fā)對儲戶提款的限制。伴隨而來的可能是一個存單流通機(jī)制，或者最終在混亂之中引入一種新貨幣。

Right now, however, the aim must still be to cool down and secure a deal. Yet, in the currentmood of anger and recrimination, reaching one now seems ever more unlikely. That would notbe the end of the story, however. Europeans will be unable to walk away. Whether Greece staysinside the euro or leaves, much the same challenges will arise. The Europeans would still have toadmit that they would not get much of their money back; and they would still have to helpavoid a Greek collapse.

然而，當(dāng)前的目標(biāo)必須仍是冷靜下來，達(dá)成協(xié)議。然而，在目前憤怒和相互指責(zé)的氣氛下，達(dá)成協(xié)議似乎越來越難。然而這并非故事的結(jié)局。歐洲將無法轉(zhuǎn)身離開。不管希臘是否留在歐元區(qū)，同樣的挑戰(zhàn)仍會出現(xiàn)。歐洲人仍不得不承認(rèn)，他們提供的很大一部分資金將收不回來;而且他們?nèi)圆坏貌粠椭�希臘避免崩潰。

It might be a relief to divorce a difficult partner. But the partner will still exist, even after thismonetary marriage is over. Greece will remain strategically located and even inside the EU.Neither the Greeks nor their partners should imagine a clean break. The relationship willcontinue. It will just be poisonous. If, tragically, that fate cannot be avoided, it will have to bemanaged for a very long time.

與一位很難相處的伴侶離婚可能會讓人解脫。但這位“伴侶”仍將存在，甚至在貨幣聯(lián)姻結(jié)束以后也是如此。希臘的地理位置仍將具有戰(zhàn)略意義，即使在歐盟內(nèi)部都是如此。希臘及其伙伴們都不應(yīng)指望干凈利落的一刀兩斷。他們的關(guān)系仍將繼續(xù)，只是這種關(guān)系將是有毒的。如果不幸無法避免這種命運(yùn)，他們就不得不長期把握這種關(guān)系。