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This week America’s corporate world passed amilestone. The value of deals in US-bound mergersand acquisitions amounted to $243bn in May,according to Dealogic — a monthly record. Theprevious monthly peaks were in May 2007 andJanuary 2000, when deals worth respectively $226bnand $213bn were struck.

美國(guó)企業(yè)上周跨越了一座里程碑。Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)并購(gòu)交易價(jià)值在今年5月達(dá)到2430億美元，創(chuàng)下單月最高紀(jì)錄。上兩次的單月最高紀(jì)錄分別出現(xiàn)在2007年5月和2000年1月，簽署的協(xié)議價(jià)值分別為2260億美元和2130億美元。

Meanwhile, so far this year, $1.85tn deals have been done globally; if this continues 2015’s totalcould top the annual record of $4.6tn deals s in 2007.

與此同時(shí)，今年以來全球簽署的并購(gòu)協(xié)議價(jià)值達(dá)到1.85萬億美元，如果持續(xù)這種趨勢(shì)的話，2015年全年并購(gòu)交易價(jià)值將超過2007年創(chuàng)造的4.6萬億美元的最高年度紀(jì)錄。

What should policy makers and investors conclude? If you want to be optimistic, you mightsee this as a welcome return of animal spirits. In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financialcrisis, corporate executives were so scarred — and scared — that their priority was to cutcorporate debt and costs. But now the C-suite feels more ambitious. And what is particularlystriking is that the current M&A frenzy is affecting not just one industry, as during thetech boom, but a wide range, including retail, oil, pharma and tech.

政策制定者和投資者應(yīng)該據(jù)此得出什么結(jié)論?如果你想樂觀一點(diǎn)，你可以將此視為動(dòng)物精神值得歡迎的回歸。2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后最初那段時(shí)間，企業(yè)高管受到了如此大創(chuàng)傷，也感到如此恐慌，因此他們把削減企業(yè)債務(wù)和成本放在第一位。但現(xiàn)在那些頭銜里掛著“首席”兩個(gè)字的企業(yè)高管(C-suite)更樂于進(jìn)取了。尤其引人矚目的是，當(dāng)前的并購(gòu)熱潮不是像科技熱時(shí)期那樣，僅席卷了一個(gè)行業(yè)，而是席卷了包括零售、石油、制藥和科技在內(nèi)的眾多行業(yè)。

But there is a second, darker interpretation of this trend: namely that the western financialsystem is drowning in excess cash and credit. History suggests such a scenario rarely endswell. After all, the crucial point about the two previous M&A peaks is that they coincidedwith equity and credit bubbles. Shortly afterwards, those bubbles burst — with painfulconsequences.

但對(duì)這種趨勢(shì)的另一種較為悲觀的解讀是：西方金融體系正淹沒在過多的現(xiàn)金和信貸當(dāng)中。歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)顯示，此類境況很少會(huì)有好的結(jié)果。畢竟，關(guān)于前兩次并購(gòu)交易高潮的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵事實(shí)是，它們正好與股票和信貸出現(xiàn)泡沫的時(shí)間重合。在前兩次并購(gòu)交易創(chuàng)出最高紀(jì)錄后不久，那些泡沫都破裂了，并帶來了令人痛苦的后果。

Moreover, the backdrop to the current M&A flurry is unnerving. Since the 2008 crisisAmerican corporate profits have surged to record levels: Goldman Sachs, for example,calculates that margins for the S&P 500 (excluding financials and utilities) are about 9 percent. In normal circumstances, that should have sparked a corporate investment boom;indeed, this is what policy makers have been desperately hoping to see.

此外，當(dāng)前并購(gòu)熱潮的背景令人不安。自2008年金融危機(jī)以來，美國(guó)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平：例如，高盛(Goldman Sachs)估計(jì)，(不包括金融和公用事業(yè)企業(yè)在內(nèi)的)標(biāo)普500成分股企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)率大約為9%。在正常情況下，這理應(yīng)引發(fā)企業(yè)投資熱潮，實(shí)際上，這也是政策制定者一直渴望看到的。

But that has not occurred. On the contrary, investment as a proportion of operating cashflow has actually fallen from 29 per cent to 23 per cent in the past five years, Goldman says,apparently because companies are gloomy about the growth outlook.

但投資熱潮并未出現(xiàn)。相反，高盛表示，投資占營(yíng)業(yè)現(xiàn)金流的比例在過去5年里實(shí)際上已從29%下降至23%，這顯然是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)對(duì)增長(zhǎng)前景感到悲觀。

This means they need to find other uses for their cash. Many have poured money into sharebuybacks: S&P 500 companies spent a record $133bn on buybacks in April this year,BlackRock says. They are paying hefty dividends, too. Indeed, analysts project that combinedoutlays on dividends and buybacks will exceed $1,000bn this year in America, more thanexpected spending on operations and research.

這意味著他們需要為資金找到其他用途。許多公司拿出大量資金用于股份回購(gòu)：貝萊德(BlackRock)表示，今年4月，標(biāo)普500成分股公司用于股份回購(gòu)上的資金達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1330億美元。他們也派發(fā)了豐厚的股息。實(shí)際上，分析師預(yù)計(jì)，今年美國(guó)企業(yè)用于紅利派息和股份回購(gòu)的資金總額將會(huì)超過1萬億美元，高于預(yù)計(jì)的營(yíng)運(yùn)和研發(fā)支出。

But, unsurprisingly, money is flooding into M&A deals, too, as executives seek eye-catching ways to show they are earning their salaries.

但不出所料的是，資金也在流入并購(gòu)交易，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)高管尋求通過引人矚目的方法來表明他們不白拿薪水。

Some bankers argue that this is not a bad tactic; or not compared to the other dismaloptions. “In our view, acquisitions — particularly in the form of stock deals — represent a morecompelling strategic use of cash than buybacks given the current stretched valuation of USequities,” says David Kostin of Goldman Sachs in a note to clients.

一些銀行家辯稱，這種策略并不壞，至少不比其他一些糟糕選擇更壞。高盛的戴維•科斯京(David Kostin)在一份寫給客戶的報(bào)告中表示：“在我們看來，鑒于美國(guó)股市當(dāng)前估值過高，把資金用于收購(gòu)——尤其是以股票協(xié)議的形式收購(gòu)——比用于回購(gòu)更具戰(zhàn)略說服力。”

The problem for policy makers is that this burst of M&A enthusiasm is unlikely to delivermuch of an economic boost. Nor will it offer much long-term value for shareholders, judging bywhat happened in 2000 and 2007. And what is doubly unnerving is that, while the M&Adrive was initially funded by excess cash and stock, it now seems to be more debt-fuelled too.This week, for example, Dealogic also revealed that corporate bond issuance in 2015 has hit arecord level of $543.4bn. That has pushed the investment grade debt-to-equity ratio to 85 percent, compared with 72 per cent in 2010.

在政策制定者看來，問題在于，這股突然迸發(fā)的并購(gòu)熱潮不太可能大舉推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。從2000年和2007年的情況來看，它也不會(huì)為股東帶來多少長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)價(jià)值。更令人不安的是，盡管并購(gòu)最初是由多余的現(xiàn)金和股票提供的融資，但現(xiàn)在它似乎更多地也是通過舉債融資。例如，上周Dealogic還披露稱，2015年企業(yè)債券發(fā)行量達(dá)到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的5434億美元。這讓投資級(jí)企業(yè)的債務(wù)股本率達(dá)到了85%，而2010年的這一比例是72%。

The M&A bankers who are orchestrating this activity insist that 2015 will be different from2000 or 2007. Chief executives have learnt the right lessons from history and are chasing onlythose acquisitions that make strategic sense — or so the argument goes. Separately, somepolicy observers argue that this M&A fever will naturally cool down later in the year as theprospect of a US interest rate rise draws closer. And who knows? If economic growthcontinues, companies may eventually start to embrace investment with the same gusto theycurrently embrace M&A or buybacks.

這一并購(gòu)熱潮的策略者、從事并購(gòu)業(yè)務(wù)的銀行業(yè)人士堅(jiān)稱，2015年將不同于2000年或者2007年，因?yàn)槭紫瘓?zhí)行官們從過去發(fā)生的事情中汲取了應(yīng)有的教訓(xùn)，只追逐那些具有戰(zhàn)略價(jià)值的并購(gòu)。至少，他們給出的理由是這樣的。另外，一些政策觀察人士辯稱，隨著美國(guó)加息那一天日趨臨近，這種并購(gòu)熱潮將在今年晚些時(shí)候自然而然地冷卻下來。誰知道呢?如果經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，公司可能最終拿出他們當(dāng)前用于并購(gòu)或者回購(gòu)的勁頭來投資。

But do not bet on that happening. The more likely outcome is that, when future historians lookback to May 2015, this $243bn record will be viewed as a portent of an overinflated financialworld. This is an era when quantitative easing is making the owners of assets rich — not tomention boosting the wealth of M&A advisers. But it has not convinced companies tobelieve in a vibrant economic outlook, or not enough to invest. And that is worrying indeed.

但是別抱指望。更可能的結(jié)果是，當(dāng)未來的歷史學(xué)家回首2015年5月的時(shí)候，這個(gè)2430億美元的最高紀(jì)錄將會(huì)被視為金融世界過度膨脹的先兆。這是一個(gè)量化寬松讓資產(chǎn)所有者變得富裕(更別說讓并購(gòu)咨詢顧問發(fā)大財(cái))的時(shí)代。但它沒有讓公司相信經(jīng)濟(jì)前景欣欣向榮，也不足以說服它們投資。這確實(shí)令人擔(dān)憂。