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China

亞洲中國

Housing

房產(chǎn)

Why grumble?

為何怨聲載道?

silver lining to the housing cloud

房產(chǎn)疑云的一線希望

JUST how bad is China's housing bubble? One important measure—the most important forthose trying to get a foot on the property ladder—is affordability. Many believe that Chinesehousing prices have soared well beyond the reach of ordinary people. There is some truth tothat. But a closer look at the data reveals a more complex picture. The Economist IntelligenceUnit, our sister company, created a city-level index to track the relation between housing pricesand incomes across China. Two points stand out.

中國房地產(chǎn)泡沫有多嚴重?要衡量這個問題，經(jīng)濟可承受性是一重要指標，它是人們試圖在購買住宅的重中之重。許多人相信，中國的房屋價格飆升到了一個常人難以企及的地步。這大約是正確的。不過對數(shù)據(jù)的進一步觀察揭示了一個更為復(fù)雜的局面。我們的兄弟公司，經(jīng)濟學(xué)人智庫開發(fā)了一個基于城市層面的指數(shù)，它可以追蹤中國房價與收入的關(guān)系。有兩點十分引人注目。

First, the country's biggest cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, with populations of more than10m, are in a class of their own in terms of unaffordability (see chart; for full results go to ourwebsite). Homes are markedly cheaper in almost all slightly smaller cities, even though theyhave millions of residents. The price of a 100-square-metre house is on average 14-fold higherthan annual household incomes in mega-cities. For cities with populations of less than 10m, theprice to income ratio is eight. It thus makes sense for China's cities to tailor their housingpolicies to their own needs; some must focus on building more subsidised homes, while othersneed to attract new residents to occupy their many homes now standing empty.

首先，中國諸如北京、上海此類的大城市擁有超過1千萬的人口，他們處于無法負擔房價的那個層次(如表所示;去我們的網(wǎng)站可以看到完整版)。幾乎所有的較小城市中，即使擁有幾百萬人口，房價也要明顯地便宜。在大城市里，一處100平方米的住宅價格平均超過了家庭年收入的14倍。那些人口少于1000萬的城市，房價與收入的比率是8。因此，中國的城市為了迎合他們自身的需求而調(diào)整房屋政策是一件有意義的事情;一些城市必須注重經(jīng)濟適用房的建設(shè)，同時其他城市需要吸引新居民去消費大量空房。

Second, regardless of city size, housing has become more affordable over the past four yearsthroughout China. At the peak, in April 2010, house prices on average were nearly 12 timeshousehold incomes; that has dropped to less than nine times today. Prices are higher than inmany developing countries, but they are not wildly divergent.

第二，不考慮城市的規(guī)模的情況下，縱觀全國，過去四年中人們更加能負擔得起住宅費用。2010年4月達到最頂峰，此時住宅售價是家庭年收入近12倍;這個比率已經(jīng)降到如今的不足9倍。發(fā)展中國家的房價比較高，但是中國的房價比之其他發(fā)展中國家也高不了多少。

The apparent improvement in affordability does not tally with the perception of manyChinese. But the official price data used in constructing this index show that people areadjusting to high inner-city prices by buying homes that are ever farther from urban centres.That may not be especially painful: suburbs are increasingly well-connected by roads andrailways.

經(jīng)濟可承受性的明顯改善與中國人的感知并不完全相符。但是，我們的指標用上了官方的數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)顯示人們通過購買遠離市中心的住房來適應(yīng)高昂的中心城區(qū)房價。這也許不會特別痛苦，因為市郊正越來越多地與大路和鐵路緊密相連。

The bigger concern, especially in smaller cities, is that China suffers from an oversupply ofhousing. So many homes have been built that prices in such cities are now declining quicklyrelative to incomes. That is desirable. But a big, sudden rise in affordability could poseconsiderable risks to the financial system, which is heavily exposed to loans made to theproperty sector. So far, at least, China has yet to experience the pain of a property-marketcrash.

另外有一個大問題，中國面臨著住宅供大于求的糟糕局面，特別是在較小的城市中。這么多的住房竣工落成，而這些城市里的房價正相對于收入迅速下跌。這本讓人高興不已。但是經(jīng)濟可承受性短時間內(nèi)大幅度的升高會對金融系統(tǒng)造成相當大的風險，特別是那些投放在房地產(chǎn)市場的貸款。到目前為止，至少還沒有歷經(jīng)房地產(chǎn)崩潰的痛苦。

1.look at 評判;審視;接受

例句:Mari tilted her head back so that she could lookat him.

瑪麗把頭向后仰，以便能看到他。

2.go to 轉(zhuǎn)到，定位

例句:We'll go to a meeting in Birmingham and comestraight back.

我們將去伯明翰參加會議，然后馬上回來。

3.even though 即使，縱然;即若

例句:I still love you even though I'd like to wring your neck.

雖然我想掐死你，但我還是愛你的。

4.focus on 致力于;使聚焦于

例句:Their talks are expected to focus on arms control.

他們的會談預(yù)計會集中討論軍備控制問題。